INDIA :

Mumbai :

Recently, Home Minister Amit Shah claimed during an election campaign that the Muslim population in India is growing uncontrollably. He presented statistics to support this claim. Later, he said this increase is happening due to infiltrators and asked the audience, “Will you allow infiltrators to vote?” People responded, “No.” In Bihar, the Election Commission had claimed that there were many infiltrators in the state, but when the Election Commission published the SIR report, not a single infiltrator was found. The claim proved hollow. India’s census data over the past seven decades tells a different story.

Between 1951 and 2011, India’s Muslim population grew in absolute numbers from 3.54 crore to 17.23 crore. However, during the same period, the fertility rate has been continuously declining. The Muslim population growth rate decreased from 32.77% in the 1950s to 24.67% by 2011. Data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) confirms this trend. According to NFHS-2 (1998–99), the fertility rate among Muslims was 3.59, which fell to 3.09 in NFHS-3 (2005–06), then to 2.61 in NFHS-4 (2015–16), and further to 2.36 in NFHS-5 (2019–21). This decline is clear, continuous, and quite complex. Why did it drop from 3.59 to 2.36? The current fertility rate is unknown because the government has neither conducted a census in recent years nor released any updated data. In reality, Muslims in India are facing economic stagnation and backwardness, yet their fertility rate continues to fall.

This declining fertility rate among Indian Muslims presents an interesting paradox. It has occurred despite the community’s limited economic progress compared to other communities. The 2006 Sachar Committee Report and subsequent studies have repeatedly shown that Muslims remain economically and educationally disadvantaged. They face lower access to education, fewer employment opportunities, and higher poverty levels than national averages. Yet their fertility rate continues to decline, suggesting that this change is being driven by broader social and economic factors rather than economic prosperity alone.

Improved public health across the country has been a major factor. After independence, government efforts expanded vaccination, maternal healthcare, and access to clean drinking water to most people, including economically weaker sections. These government initiatives dramatically reduced child mortality, which was one of the key drivers of large family sizes in the past. When parents are more confident that their children will survive, they tend to have fewer children. Alongside this, there has been gradual progress in education among Muslims, particularly in female literacy, which has grown considerably since 1951 in several regions such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra. Even modest educational gains, especially for women, play a decisive role in shaping family planning decisions and promoting smaller families.

The economic environment also influences this change. As living costs rise and employment opportunities shrink, families across all communities are rethinking the size of their households. Among Muslims, urban migration has brought exposure to new social trends, increased living expenses, and housing shortages, creating problems. Now many families feel that raising and educating multiple children is becoming increasingly difficult in the current economy. Ironically, economic insecurity and limited opportunities discourage larger families, not because of affluence, but due to a sense of resource scarcity.

In addition to these socio-economic factors, the reach of media, mobile phones, and social awareness campaigns has extended to almost everyone, regardless of income or education level. Information about health, contraception, and family planning circulates freely through television, social media, and community networks, influencing social attitudes about ideal family size. As families become more aware of these issues, they tend to adopt modern reproductive behaviors (fewer children).

However, the reasons for declining fertility rates are different for different communities in India, and experts continue to debate the exact mix of factors responsible. In the case of Muslims, the declining fertility rate may also be linked to the uncertainty and insecurity that Muslims have experienced in recent years. Several social scientists have observed that the ruling political party’s creation of a climate of fear, legislation against Muslims, the use of bulldozers, the Waqf Amendment Bill, and debates around the proposed Uniform Civil Code generate apprehensions among Muslims. Analysts also point to the impact of negative portrayals in sections of the mainstream media and the use of religious polarization in political campaigns, which according to them have contributed to creating a sense of alienation. Moreover, concerns have been raised about the limited inclusion of Muslims in policy frameworks focused on education, employment, and business sectors. Living under prolonged social and political pressure, many Muslim families may have become more cautious and less optimistic about expanding their households. Therefore, their demographic change may not reflect prosperity or modernity but rather a cautious adaptation to an environment perceived as uncertain or exclusionary.

Demographic experts and social scientists should engage in an open, data-driven debate on the causes behind the declining fertility rates among Indian Muslims, as this trend raises complex social and political questions that go beyond mere numbers. While census and NFHS data clearly show a consistent decline in fertility over the decades, the underlying reasons remain contested. Some experts attribute it to improved health facilities, educational progress, and urban issues, while others argue that deepening economic insecurity, social marginalization, and limited representation in development policies are equally responsible.

A national dialogue among demographers, economists, sociologists, and policymakers is urgently needed to examine how socio-economic factors, Muslim perceptions, and policy frameworks are influencing demographic behavior within the country’s largest minority community, and what this means for the nation’s inclusive development.

*The author is associated with the Welfare Party of India.

source: http://www.indiatomorrow.net / India Tomorrow / Home> National Interest / by Sheikh Saleem / October 22nd, 2025